Why Size Doesn't Matter | Flow Metrics Explained
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Video Description
"But our items aren't all the same size!" I know. It doesn't matter. And here's the uncomfortable truth: your story points aren't working either.
This video tackles the #1 objection to throughput-based forecasting - and shows why the law of large numbers, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, handles variability better than your estimation meetings ever did.
What you'll learn:
- Right-sizing still matters (batch size, complexity)
- Why story point estimation fails (fibonacci fights, still wrong)
- The law of large numbers: big and small average out
- Why averages hide reality (and Monte Carlo doesn't)
- Great weeks, stinker weeks, and why both matter
Key insight: Is throughput forecasting perfect? No. But stop fooling yourself that your estimates were good. Do less estimating. Spend more time delivering.
Works with Azure DevOps and GitHub.
► Try Honest Cheetah: https://www.honestcheetah.com ► Full Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGxFXI4dC2sg--x742ThwQZqJ6-2Jk7Rb
Tags
#FlowMetrics #NoEstimates #StoryPoints #Throughput #Agile #MonteCarlo #ProjectManagement #AzureDevOps #GitHub
0:00 Why Size Doesn't Matter 0:12 The Objection 0:27 Right-Sizing Still Matters 1:01 Story Point Estimation: Be Honest 1:33 What's More Empirical? 1:47 Throughput Over Time 2:17 Reality Has Outliers 3:15 Averages Hide Reality 3:28 Monte Carlo: Use the Full Picture 4:01 The Honest Truth 4:15 Estimate less. Deliver more. 4:34 www.honestcheetah.com 4:50 Thanks for Watching
Video Info
- Duration: 4:54
- Published: January 23, 2026
